I honestly think you could make a pretty accurate prediction of 2012 based on one thing:  the unemployment rate.  If it's at 9 or more, Obama loses unless facing a Palin-esque candidate (then it's a tossup.)  8-8.9 depends on the candidate and how the Republican House and Obama work together (i.e. who wins the spin war.)  7.9 or less, Obama wins handily barring a substantial scandal or monumental gaffe/political mistake.  If you think 7.9 is a pretty high number to be the safe zone, I'll remind you of Reagan in '84, and the fact that all other economic metrics are already looking fairly good.  Of course, this is all shot to shit if Bloomberg decides to seriously run.  I don't even know how to begin handicapping that.  Conventional wisdom has that hurting Obama, but I think that underrates the liberal base, especially Obama's version with blacks, educated whites and the youth.  I don't see Bloomberg getting any of those.  Maybe the youth vote because their usually attracted to unconventional bids, but Bloomberg doesn't strike me as the type of candidate who captures their imagination.  Trying to evaluate the electoral map in this type of three way is a migraine of a headache.

Last Edited By: DMC 11/05/10 9:37 AM. Edited 1 times.