Swiff, I thought that a year ago, but now I'm not so sure.  I don't think organization will be much of a problem.  She is likely to have the most passionate supporters, which often yields a volunteer army, at least early.  And with Beck and Hannity, a lot of Fox News would likely be behind her, which is a formidable force.  With the early states, I think she could win Iowa handily.  She'll get killed in New Hampshire, but South Carolina could be interesting.  Usually that's the stop-gap for the establishment candidate, but there may not be one yet, with Romney the only one likely to emerge.  It depends on a lot of things:  the field of candidates, the primary calendar and the political climate at the time, but I think the tea party showed that they are a potent force in primaries throughout the country.  I still wouldn't put the odds higher than about twenty percent, but stranger things have happened.